IBM CEO Arvind Krishna. IBM
There has been considerable discussion and stock price volatility of late surrounding the expected timing of useful applications and hardware for quantum computing. One month after Google created excitement around its Willow quantum chip, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, started a food fight on Wall Street by predicting that quantum computing won’t be a significant computing paradigm for at least a decade. Quantum stocks dropped over 30%. Subsequently, Bill Gates joined in, saying, “There is the possibility that the [Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang]
could be wrong. There is the possibility in the next three to five years that one of these techniques would get enough true logical Qubits to solve some very tough problems.”
Not one to wade into a shouting match, IBM (a client of Cambrian-AI Research) has been quietly and steadily advancing quantum computing sciences and use cases, as explained in a series of webinars, covering quantum applications in energy, financial modeling, electronics, and health care. Last year, IBM also published the 4th edition of a dazzling coffee table book on the coming Quantum Decade. IBM probably has hundreds of scientists working on quantum developing hardware, software, and ecosystems to lead in this exotic technology.
While IBM and other quantum innovators like Microsoft, Google, AWS, and startups see hundreds of applications in development today, Zuckerberg and Huang are probably looking for big-impact applications. And there aren’t any, at least not yet. The current quantum applications being developed fill specific scientific niches with little industrial and economic impact. They are important niches to the scientists who can now solve previously unsolvable problems, but they may not constitute another multi-billion-dollar market. Those applications will take much faster quantum computers and new algorithms that can exploit the hardware.
IBM and its competitors are developing hardware, software tools, and algorithms that could deliver those billion-dollar applications in the next 5-10 years. Specific uses of quantum computing in physics and chemistry are already pushing research forward. Still, these experiments demand faster hardware, error correction, and new algorithms beyond the R&D setting.
IBM thinks it can achieve quantum advantage sometime in the next two years – via improved performance and error mitigation techniques and increased collaboration with the HPC community. IBM also announced its plans to reach over 2,000 logical qubits. True error correction should arrive in 2029 with the Starling processor, followed by the Blue Jay processor, with 2,000 logical qubits and over a billion gates in 2033.
Why is It Taking So Long For Useful Quantum Computing to Arrive?
Quantum is hard; extremely hard. Advances in cryogenics, qubit design, scaling interconnects, algorithm development, run-time tools, and applications will enable useful and perhaps pervasive quantum solutions. The inherent error rate of quantum bits is a thousand times higher than that of digital circuitry. Consequently, scaling quantum processors to thousands of qubits and dealing with the instability of those qubits creates demanding challenges.
Useful Quantum Computing requires advances in the hardware and the algorithms. IBM
But we are getting close to realizing significant advances as these developments take shape. The chart above explains the dynamics at play. We are currently at the beginning of quantum utility, where we can begin to see the benefits of hardware and algorithms as we progress. All quantum industry players including IBM, Amazon, Intel, Google, Microsoft, hardware startups (Alice and Bob, Atos D-Wave, Quantinuum, Rigetti, QuEra and Xanadu among others) are amongst the over 70 global quantum startups working on solving these challenges.
Along the way, advances in quantum are supported and complemented by advances in classic HPC computing to support the execution of the circuits by offloading some of the execution onto the CPU and GPU or using those tools to clean the results. In fact, accelerated servers surround quantum processors, always working in tandem with classical computers
Quantum Computing in Health Care and Life Sciences
In IBM’s most recent webinar, we learned how researchers apply quantum to solve Life Sciences and Health Care problems. One of the brightest application spaces for quantum is accelerating the R&D process for pharmaceuticals. The current process takes 10-15 years, billions of dollars, and yet 90% of drug candidates fail. Quantum and AI can potentially speed the process, cost less, and produce superior outcomes, potentially becoming the billion-dollar solution that Jensen and Zuckerburg seek.
In drug discovery, quantum computing can speed the development and evaluation of proteins through simulation and applying machine learning. Quantum computers have the potential to simulate complex molecular interactions at an atomic level with unprecedented accuracy, allowing researchers to model drug-protein interactions more realistically, leading to the discovery of novel therapeutic compounds. Quantum algorithms have the potential to search vast chemical databases much faster than classical computers, enabling rapid identification of potential drug candidates that match specific molecular criteria.
Quantum computers can also identify optimal molecular structures for specific targets, leading to improved efficacy and reduced toxicity of potential drugs. Quantum computing could speed up the screening of vast libraries of potential drug candidates, allowing researchers to quickly identify promising molecules for further testing. Quantum computing has the potential to model complex protein folding patterns and interactions at a molecular level, helping researchers identify novel drug targets that were previously undetectable.
IBM is researching the applicability of quantum computing across the broad spectrum of drug development and delivery. IBM
Quantum computing holds the potential to revolutionize healthcare and life sciences by addressing key challenges in the field. For example, quantum algorithms can integrate data to uncover critical genes, proteins, and pathways. Quantum walks can identify key proteins in cancer signaling pathways, aiding in the development of targeted therapies. Additionally, quantum methods speed the discovery of higher-order gene interactions, accelerating the understanding of polygenic diseases. Hybrid quantum-classical algorithms enhance predictions of protein and RNA structures, which are crucial for designing biologics and mRNA therapies. Quantum techniques also improve ligand-based virtual screening and simulate drug-target interactions with unprecedented accuracy, enabling better lead optimization. In clinical trials, quantum algorithms can optimize trial designs, site selection, and cohort identification, reducing costs and improving outcomes.
The webinar showcased several collaborative success stories where IBM has partnered with industry leaders to demonstrate the potentially transformative power of quantum computing. A few examples:
- IBM’s decade-long partnership with Cleveland Clinic has explored applications in CAR-T cell therapy, protein structure prediction, and drug design.
- Moderna has leveraged quantum computing to predict RNA secondary structures, advancing mRNA vaccine development.
- Amgen has used quantum methods to predict drug adherence, ensuring better patient outcomes.
- The STFC Hartree Centre in the UK has developed hybrid quantum-classical frameworks for virtual screening.
Client use cases. IBM
To accelerate industry adoption further, IBM has launched the Quantum Accelerator program, which helps enterprises identify business problems suitable for quantum solutions, prototype quantum applications iteratively, and leverage IBM’s ecosystem of over 250 members and 39 innovation centers. This program is designed to support the enterprise during all their journey of quantum adoption.
So, When Will Quantum Really Arrive?
If you ask IBM, they will tell you it already has, albeit in small doses, while the potential wave of quantum applications will begin in earnest around 2030. Whether that is early or late depends on your expectations, and Jensen and Zuckerberg are famously impatient guys.
We believe that quantum computing is poised to transform healthcare and life sciences by addressing computational bottlenecks and enabling groundbreaking innovations. From understanding disease mechanisms to optimizing drug discovery pipelines, IBM quantum’s advancements promise to unlock unprecedented opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry, reducing R&D costs, accelerating timelines, and improving patient outcomes.